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Please pick 3 economic indicators (see the list below – the business cycles indicators are also listed in your e-book) and find the data for these economic indicators for the last 13-14 years to include the 2007-09 recession. (You can find historical data for most of these economic indicators on www.fred.stlouis.org but the complete list of sources are below.)
- How do these economic indicators explain the changes in real GDP for these years?
Your starting point is the historical chart for Real GDP for the last 14 years like the following:
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Then find the 14-year charts for each of the 3 indicators you pick and explain the the fluctuations in these indicators with respect to Real GDP. Include the historical chart for each indicator in your answers. (The Federal Reserve Bank evaluates the changes in all these indicators to evaluate the overall economy but in this assignment you will be taking only 3 of them. Try to pick different indicators so we can have a complete picture of the economy. )
Below you will find the original source for each indicator but Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Data (FRED) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ is a shortcut and it’s easier to find historical data on this website (Search FRED) for most of the indicators. I recommend that you go to the original sources to experience finding data.
Respond to a classmate’s post.
Sources for Economic Indicators:
Leading Indicators
Average workweek www.bls.gov (Table B-2. Average weekly hours and overtime of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted)
Unemployment claims www.bls.gov (Table 1. Mass layoff events and initial claimants for unemployment insurance, January 2009 to December 2012, seasonally adjusted)
New consumer goods orders Conference Board
Delayed deliveries www.napm.org (ism.ws)
New orders for plant and equipment Conference Board
New building permits www.census.gov
Stock prices www.standardandpoors.com
Money supply www.federalreserve.gov (H6), Conference Board
Interest rates www.federalreserve.gov
Consumer expectations Surveys of Consumers University of Michigan, http://press.sca.isr.umich.edu/press/press_release
Coincident indicators
Nonagricultural payrolls www.bls.gov
Personal income minus transfer payments Conference Board
Industrial production www.federalreserve.gov (G17 Table 1 and Table 1A)
Total industry capacity utilization rates www.federalreserve.gov
Manufacturing and trade sales Conference Board
Lagging Indicators
Unemployment rate www.bls.gov
Duration of unemployment www.bls.gov
Labor cost per unit of output www.bls.gov
Consumer price index for services www.bls.gov
Commercial and industrial loans Conference Board
Consumer credit to personal income ratio Conference Board
Prime rate www.federalreserve.org
OTHER RESOURCES
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Data https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond – National Economic Indicators http://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/national_economic_indicators/pdf/all_charts.pdf
US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/briefrm/calendar-listview.html
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Data http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/releases
Economic Policy Institute http://www.epi.org/types/economic-indicators/gdp-picture/ (
The Financial Forecast Center http://www.forecasts.org/index.htm
Library of Economics and Liberty http://www.econlib.org/library/data.html
Trading Economics http://www.tradingeconomics.com/indicators
Economics Indicators Calendar https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/nationalecon_cal.html
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