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BACKGROUND: There’s a major problem with probability: it doesn’t work very well. For example, common knowledge tells me that in a fair coin toss I have 50% odds of flipping heads and 50% odds of flipping tails. But flip a coin once and you’ll either get 100% tails or 100% heads.

Now, I get it. I mean, don’t worry. After many flips, blah blah blah. We can study a fair coin toss for two weeks, counting total possibilities, various games, expected values, etc. but none of this helps me guess the next flip at all. Even in the next six flips there’s a depressingly low chance of getting three heads and three tails. We certainly can’t rely on it happening in our little experiment while we try to convince people of what “50% likely” means!

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I believe in probability, but it is indemonstrable. Once you do something, it 100% happened despite its 50% (or 5%) odds. The challenge for us, then, is to reconcile these seemingly-disparate pieces of evidence.

THE GOAL: The goal of this discussion is to get you to seriously consider your beliefs about probability.

YOUR ASSIGNMENT:

POST #1: Research a probability that is of interest. This could be anything from the probability of a major earthquake in California to the lottery. Examine the probability and evaluate the source of the information, how the probability was derived, etc. How do you reconcile the probability and the actual occurrence (or non-occurrence)? Has your study of probability changed your beliefs regarding the validity of sources that put forth “probable outcomes”?

To get an A:

Content and contribution are thoughtful and analyze the content or question asked. Make connections to the course content and/or other experiences. Extend discussions already taking place or pose new possibilities or opinions not previously voiced. Are from participants aware of the needs of the community, motivate group discussion, and present a creative approach to the topic

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